Llano, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

655
FXUS66 KLOX 062321
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
421 PM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...06/456 AM.

Dry weather can be expected through next Saturday. A gradual
warming trend will continue through Thursday. Well above normal
temperatures are likely Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the
mid 80s to low 90s expected across the valleys. It will turn
cooler Friday and Saturday as onshore flow increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...06/118 PM.

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the short
term period. At upper levels, ridge will get knocked down a bit on
Monday/Tuesday then will rebuild over the area on Tuesday. Near
the surface, onshore flow to the east will strengthen Monday,
before weakening on Tuesday and Wednesday, but northerly offshore
gradients to the north will continue.

Forecast-wise for the short term, no significant issues are
expected. With the upper level ridge weakening and easterly
onshore gradients increasing through Tuesday, there will be some
increase in low clouds/fog across the coastal plain, especially
across the Central Coast. Inversion will remain rather shallow,
so there could be some locally dense fog with any stratus
development. By Wednesday morning, H5 heights will be on the
increase as ridge strengthens and should greatly limit any
potential stratus/fog. Other than the potential stratus/fog
issues, skies are expected to remain mostly clear through
Wednesday.

As for temperatures, will expect some cooling for all areas on
Monday with increasing onshore gradients and lowering thicknesses.
Tuesday, will expect near persistence temperatures across the
coastal plain and a couple degrees of warming across interior
areas. On Wednesday, all areas will warm up noticeably with areas
away from the coast climbing into the 80s to lower 90s.

As for winds, no significant issues are expected. With a
persistent northerly offshore gradients, northerly winds will
continue across the Santa Ynez range through Wednesday, but
should remain below advisory levels. Otherwise, winds are not
expected to be an issue.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...06/118 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to be on the same synoptic
page. Main pattern of note will be the upper ridge peaking in
strength on Thursday then a series of troughs moving across the
West Coast Friday through the weekend.

With the above mentioned synoptic pattern, nothing too exciting is
expected through next weekend. Thursday, with the upper ridge
peaking in strength, will be the warmest day of the extended with
temperatures similar (if not a couple degrees warmer) to
Wednesday. With the ridge overhead, skies will remain mostly
clear.

For Friday through the weekend, lowering H5 heights and increasing
onshore gradients will bring a cooling trend to all areas. Along
with the cooler temperatures, there will be an increase in the low
clouds/fog during the night and morning with stratus pushing into
the coastal valleys by Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...06/2320Z.

At 2223Z at KLAX, the marine layer depth was around 250 feet.
The marine inversion top was around 2000 ft and a temp of 19 deg
C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPRB, KSBA, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, and
KWJF.

Low to moderate confidence in remaining TAFS. There is a chance
for VFR conds to prevail at KSMX (10%), KOXR (30%), KLAX (40%),
and KLGB (40%). For remaining coastal sites, there is a chance for
LIFR/IFR conds at KSBP (20%), KCMA (20%), and KSMO (40%). If
stratus arrives, low confidence in minimum flight cat, but LIFR
conds are most likely, with local VLIFR vsbys possible at all
sites.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40% chance VFR conds
prevail through the period. If stratus arrives, there is a 30%
chance for vsbys of 1/2SM or lower or cigs VV001 between 10Z and
16Z. High confidence in any east wind component remaining below 8
kts.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...06/1258 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. This evening through Friday night, there is a 60%-70%
chance for a combination of SCA level winds and seas. However, for
PZZ670 (north of Point Sal), SCA level winds will likely be most
widespread starting Tuesday afternoon. There is also a 20% chance
of localized Gale Force wind gusts around the Northern Channel
Islands down to San Nicolas Island Tuesday during the afternoon/
evening hours.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, high confidence in
current forecast. Winds and seas will generally remain below SCA
criteria through Tuesday morning. From Tuesday afternoon through
Friday night, there is a 40%-60% chance of SCA winds during the
afternoon/eve hours each day, and a 30-40% chance of SCA level
seas near 10 feet through Wednesday morning.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in current forecast. There is a 40%-60% chance of SCA
level W to NW winds in western/southern portions of the Santa
Barbara Channel during the evening hours through Friday.
Otherwise, conds are expected to be below SCA levels thru the
period.

&&

.BEACHES...06/100 PM.

A moderate to long period west-northwest swell will bring
high surf conditions to portions of Southwest California this
evening through late Monday night. Peak surf heights will be 4 to
7 feet in Ventura County, and 7 to 11 feet along the Central
Coast. The highest surf will be on west and northwest facing
beaches.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM
      PDT Tuesday for zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM PDT
      Tuesday for zone 354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM
      PDT Monday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Sirard
BEACHES...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Sirard

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox